The security situation in Ukraine is volatile and fast-moving.
With HIGH CONFIDENCE it is LIKELY that Russian federation forces will conduct additional cyber-attack and kinetic attacks on Ukraine, likely targeting the power infrastructure, communications, and POL (Petrol, Oil, and Lubricant) sites, while taking advantage of the winter months. We are HIGHLY LIKELY to see high-intensity combat operations increase in Kyiv and begin in Odessa, utilizing conventional means (i.e., non-chemical or biological weapons) albeit with the help of
banned munitions and wanton disregard for civilian lives. Gains will continue to be made in the southeast surrounding Mariupol. It is HIGHLY LIKELY an over-the-beach operation will be conducted via maritime landing by Russian Marines currently afloat with the Russian naval fleet.
With HIGH CONFIDENCE it is LIKELY to see a combination of naval gun fire, which is not very accurate when speaking about Russian forces, in Odessa and any assault will have pre-assault fires or shaping fires conducted by these guns in conjunction with air strikes and ballistic missiles.